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Weak external demand cycle off-season to put pressure on climate index downstream shocks increase

Information system monitoring, according to the “China Yiwu Small Commodity Index” (referred to as the “Yiwu index”), the sentiment index for May downstream turbulence increased fell 973.03 points, down 47.09 points, down 75.03 points; monthly price index of 103.97 points, the chain edged down 0.04 points, rose 2.77 points, or 2.94%. Sentiment index rose in April to suppress consumer demand and seasonal product sales in the waning driving effect; addition by the impact of the complex international situation, weak external demand, compared with previous years, some of the industry export a higher proportion of early entry into the off-season in May or product replacement period, increasing the cyclical downward pressure.

  First, the various economic indicators

  (A) climate index composition

  This month prosperity index 973.03 points, the chain fell 47.09 points, or 4.62 percent, down 75.03 points, down 7.16 percent. The sentiment index composition is as follows:

  A scale index: 787.76 points, the chain fell 11.05 points, fell by 30.35 points.Since May, the external need to insufficient daylight saving products off the shelf than in previous years has been ahead of schedule, the market turnover index, trading volume index ring respectively, fell 21.57 points, 8.55 points, or 2.69 percent, 1.12 percent; popularity index fell 5.32 points, a decrease of 0.69%.

  The efficiency index: 1138.31 points, the chain fell 127.98 points, fell by 234.75 points. Among them, the gross margin index, business transfer index, the capital transferred Index and the average household gross profit amount index ring fell 29.62 points, 169.03 points, 141.05 points and 179.43 points respectively year on year fell 69.23 points to 240.61 points and 172.45 points and 366.72 points.

  The confidence index: 1069.03 points, the chain fell 14.26 points, rose 25.13 points.

  This month the 15 industries in the three categories prosperity index or list up, accessories, and packaging, daily necessities, sports and entertainment articles in the forefront, chain rose 28.69 points, 21.72 points, 5.99 points. Among them, the daily use continued to rise in April and May, accessories, and packaging, sports and entertainment articles in April and May stabilized rebound.

  12 major industries, climate index fell in the top three Losers jewelry class, electronic clocks, glasses, the chain fell 150.7 points, 120.92 points, 114.97 points. Among them, the seven major categories of up, down, respectively, cultural and office supplies, toys, luggage, clothing apparel, hardware and electrical materials, footwear and jewelry classes; boom downstream of the five categories has lasted two months, respectively, crafts, care and beauty articles, needle textiles, clocks, glasses class, electronic class.

  (B) The price index composition

  The price index of 103.97 points, chain edged down 0.04 points, a decrease of 0.03 percent, rose 2.77 points, or 2.74 percent. The price index of export transactions, online transactions price index, the trading floor order price index fell 0.44 points, 0.06 points, 0.07 points, the venue direct trading price index rose 0.04 points.

  Eight major chain of monthly price index rise, commodity, clocks, glasses, electronic appliances category in the forefront of the gains list of 15 industries, the chain were up 1.83 points, 1.59 points, 1.18 points. Among them, electrical and electronic, footwear, sports and entertainment goods continued two months, up five major categories of daily use, clocks, glasses, cultural and office supplies, hardware and electrical materials, classes, jewelry classes rebound.

  The seven major categories of monthly price index fell, arts and crafts classes, needle textiles, luggage category in the drop list the top three, the chain fell 2.23 points, 2.17 points, 0.82 points. Among them, the care and beauty articles, toys, accessories, and packaging, clothing apparel, luggage five major categories rose and then dropped; needle textiles, arts and crafts class in two categories for two months downstream.

  Second, the sentiment index of factor analysis

  (A) daylight saving products fade, seasonal product turnover compared to previous years in advance

  May, to suppress consumer demand release and seasonal product sales in the two effects waning, the main cause of climate index down. Chain of fragrance categories, inflatable toys, hair ornaments class sentiment index fell 207.74 points to 177.28 points and 110.57 points; In addition, subject to the impact of complex international situation, weak external demand, compared with previous years, some industry export a higher proportion of early May, to enter the off-season or product turnover of the market economy is cyclical down, EVA slippers, slippers products, inflatable slippers daylight saving products began after another off the shelf, market dealers to prepare for the autumn and winter product stocking, shoes, supplies and accessories class slippers class prosperity index fell 388.75 points, 114.42 points.

  (B) the school supplies into the consolidation of

  Near the end of the semester, the school supplies into the consolidation period, glasses, class, cultural and office supplies, and accessories, sports and fitness articles prosperity index fell 173.93 points, 64.8 points, 54.24 points. But with the summer vacation as well as major supermarkets and shops for the procurement of the new semester started, cultural and office supplies will resume its rally in June and July.

  (C) of the global industrial transfer impact materials, and other accessories stronger, Christmas shopping, travel expo uplift the arts and crafts class popularity

  With the transfer of industries, more and more customers Duo Nanya and Southeast Asian countries to Yiwu to purchase accessories or manufacturing machines. According to Yiwu customs statistics, in the first four months of this year, Yiwu exported to India Commodity value of $ 180 million, an increase of 31.7%. Yiwu Index System monitoring accessories class ring in May rose 5.04 points, class rings than optical goods and accessories rose 83.36 points.

  Four-day trip Fair come to an end, plus the boost of the Christmas shopping, arts and crafts class venue popular gathering, folk crafts, special crafts class, the chain of arts and crafts class sentiment index rose 78.99 points, 65.75 points and 13.59 points .

  Third, market trend analysis

  (A) cultural and office goods, crafts, electrical and electronic cyclical upturn after the consolidation is expected to enter channel

  With the recent Fair will be held, in addition to the summer before the domestic stocking the end of May early June, cultural and office supplies after the May correction, is expected to pick up in June and July.

  With the Christmas shopping is getting hot and new promotional effect of the travel expo, arts and crafts classes to continue rising.

  Daylight Saving in electrical and electronic products selling, MP3, MP4, machine learning, game consoles and other products in the summer approaching, the procurement of major stores and shopping malls started, optimistic outlook.

  (B) robust outlook operation of the luggage, clocks, glasses, jewelry, care and beauty articles

  Peak tourism season, seasonal products support the watch glasses classes and luggage market, needle textiles, jewelry, care and beauty articles inside continuing bullish outlook is expected to run sound.

  (C) sports and entertainment goods, hardware and electrical materials, needle textiles, accessories, and packaging and daily use outlook still wait and see

  Since the beginning of this year, the procurement performance of European and American markets and the Middle East is not stable, sports and entertainment goods, hardware and electrical materials, needle textiles, accessories, and packaging, daily necessities, the trend of late, still wait and see.

  (D) The toys, footwear, clothing and apparel market outlook, short-term some callback

  With the end of the “6”, the toys from the sales peak in the short term market outlook is expected to be a callback.

  Strong seasonal footwear, clothing and apparel industry is about to enter a product turnover of the summer selling products gradually next winter also stocking downward correction will be within a short time-based.

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